Avoiding the Negative Expected Value
October 1st, 2008A negative expected value or a mistake in poker is very important and an integral part in the game. You can be lucky at times and unlucky at other times. In the long run luck does not have much say in your success in poker. What really matters is whether you have bet properly and timed it well.
In other words, your success depends on the expected value of the bets made by you. If you play a game where you lose money on a bet, you have incurred a negative expected value or you have done a mistake. The degree of how big or small this mistake is depends on the amount of money you have lost vis-à-vis the buy-in for that game.
Small mistakes or small loses can be forgiven to some extent. But, what you really can’t afford is a big mistake. To avoid a big negative expected value you need to keep in mind some factors.
Keep track of the pot size to control your big mistake in poker. Here’s a typical example to illustrate this point. When you are betting only 10 percent of the pot size, it is better to call. If the bet is large vis-à-vis the pot size, you need to fold.
Now, at this point, if you call instead of opting for a fold, you make a huge mistake. Here, the negative expected value is enormous and you need to reduce such mistakes to be successful in poker.
The other factor you need to keep in mind is whether the quality of your hand is better than your opponent’s hand. This would help you to take the correct step instead of committing a mistake. Also, keep track of the possibility of your opponent having that hand compared to other hands.
Armed with these salient tips, check out whether you have been able to reduce your negative expected value.

